Story Points As Effort + Uncertainty

The only way to perfectly estimate how long a task will take, is to do the task and measure how long it took. In most situations where you’re endeavoring to produce an estimate, this is not a practical way of providing it. At the other end of the spectrum, you can pick a random number and base your timeline on that. While this is a quick and easy way of coming up with an estimate, it is rarely helpful.
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